The Rare Storm Prediction Michigan Hasn’t Faced in Over a Decade

Michigan is no stranger to severe weather. While the Great Lakes State is most known for its winter weather (of which blizzards or large accumulations of snow are common), Michigan has seen a significant amount of other severe weather this year. 2025 has been one of Michigan's most active tornado seasons in two decades, with over 28 confirmed tornadoes.

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Despite these, there is a unique type of weather declaration that the state hasn't seen since one fateful day over a decade ago, which, upon first inspection, can be somewhat confusing. Michigan has not seen an SPC "high risk" day for severe weather in over a decade, yet I hear you asking, "But haven't we had severe weather? Doesn't that make us at high risk?" to which I say, great question. Yes, but not quite.

What Is an SPC High Risk Forecast?

The NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is known for monitoring areas around the country and issuing alerts if the SPC believes the conditions are right for severe weather. These differ from tornado warnings or flood warnings because the SPC issues its warnings in advance of the weather.

READ MORE: Could Michigan Join Tornado Alley? Findings Show New Risks

These predictions function on a 1-5 scale of severity, with 1 being the least severe and 5 being high risk. According to The Weather Channel, "high risk" means the NOAA is worried about:

• A tornado outbreak with numerous intense and long-track tornadoes.
• A long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that includes hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage.

This declaration is rare, with the SPC only naming 68 of these between 2000 and 2024 and only averaging 2-3 a year around the country. With an event this year, when was the last time Michigan was part of a "high risk" prediction?

November 17th, 2013

It's been 12 years since Michigan was part of a "high-risk" severe weather event prediction, but it was for good reason. Recently, the Michigan Storm Chasers Facebook page posted about the last High Risk SPC event, which sparked my confusion and led to the creation of this article.

On November 13th, 2013, Michigan was in the path of a series of severe thunderstorms that had a strong potential for "significant tornadoes and widespread damaging winds." This storm was a monster, with over 106 tornadoes reported in the prediction zones.

The SPC's report states that Michigan experienced 

• EF-0 in Muskegon that traveled 50 miles
• EF-1 in Cass County
• EF-1 in Otsego
• EF-0 in Ingham
• Reports of hail in Allegan

Michigan has had severe weather since then, but nothing that the SPC has deemed a "high risk".