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Academy Awards: And the Winners for the 86th Oscars Are …

Will Smith rehearses at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Calif., for the 86th Oscars, which are being presented tonight and are being broadcast by ABC.                               (Photo: Richard Harbaugh/© AMPAS

The stars come out tonight for the 86th Oscars, also known as the Academy Awards.

Recognizing the outstanding film achievements for 2013, the awards by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences are being presented at Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Calif., and are being broadcast by ABC starting at 8:30 p.m. EST. Ellen DeGeneres is the host.

The red-carpet pre-show on ABC starts at 7 p.m. EST.

Who will win those coveted statues for movies?

While social media has been clamoring that Leonardo DiCaprio appears to be a lock for best actor for his portrayal in “The Wolf of Wall Street,” a Columbus, Ohio, data firm says he won’t win. Instead, Farsite Group predicts that Matthew McConaughey will win best actor for his role in “Dallas Buyers Club.”

Other winners look to be, at least according to Farsite:

“Our predictions are far more than lucky guesses. Most people are surprised to hear that the same sophisticated, predictive modeling we use in industries like retail and healthcare can predict Oscar winners quite accurately,” said Ryan McClarren, chief science officer at Information Control Company, which operates Farsite. “And while social media buzz may be high this week for Leo DiCaprio, sadly, our data shows he is not going home with a statue on Sunday.”

Farsite uses data modeling tool to predict Oscar winners, analyzing more than 40 years of film industry and Academy Award-related information to forecast probabilities for the winners. The information includes real-time data and an array of variables, including total nominations, other Motion Picture Guild nominations and wins, buzz and nominees’ previous winning performances.

According to Farsite, there are three factors to the model for predicting Oscar winners: current awards, buzz and prior performance.

Last year, Farsite correctly predicted Christoph Waltz would win best supporting actor for “Django Unchained.” And while some said Farsite went out on a limb with its pick of “Argo” for best picture, director Ben Affleck

Here’s a look at what Farsite Forecast is predicting for the Oscars:

Farsite Forecast/ICC

 

Want more tonight for the Oscars?

See the list of Academy Award nominees at 7 p.m. EST tonight here, and bookmark that page for the results, too, from 97.9, ‘GRD Rocks and ScreenCrush.

Next: Plan Your Own Oscar Party

 

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